MY ANNUAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS, FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

OK! SHOWTIME! As I do every year, here are my Oscar pics. Warning: I have never been so unsure of my picks as I am now, so don’t bet the farm. OK, I’m late so let’s not waste time:

Best Picture: Conclave. The one year I really beat the experts soundly was 2019 when I called Green Book, which I knew was sentimental in just the right Oscar-winning way. And when I missed big in 2022 it was because I couldn’t believe the Academy would go that sappy and choose CODA. It is usually (but not always) a bad idea to underestimate Oscar's taste for cheese. Conclave, with its old-fashioned high drama, high stakes, and exotic setting, seems the most defensible old-school choice notwithstanding its lack of a directing nomination. Also, as I mentioned in my review, it was a hit with the senior citizens. Anora’s lovely but, with its nudity, swearing, and sex, more a young person’s movie. I think the geezers will push this one through. 

Best Actor: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist. Like I said in my review, he suffered pretty fulsomely. But there was also enough mystery in the performance to keep you from turning away from it. 

Best Actress: Mikey Madison, Anora. If you liked nothing else about the movie you still had to love her. She’s got spunk! 

Best Supporting Actor: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown. Everyone says Kieran Culkin, and I see it (notwithstanding the category fraud – that’s a starring performance if anything is). But Norton’s Pete Seeger is just such a well-built impersonation as well as a great emotional force I don’t see how it can miss. (Spoiler, that’s what I always say when I’m making a sucker bet.)

Best Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande, Wicked. Speaking of sucker bets! Smart money is on Zoe Saldaña but, fierce as she was, her character had no arc. Grande got the laughs and got the tears. And she can sing. 

Best Director: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance. Whatever else you think of it, it was fo-sho directed. 

Best Original Screenplay: Sean Baker, Anora.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Peter Straughan, Conclave. 

Best Cinematography: Lol Crawley, The Brutalist.

Best Film Editing: Sean Baker, Anora.

Best Score: Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist.

Best Song: “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez.

Best Production Design: The Brutalist.

Best Costume Design: Wicked.

Best Makeup: The Substance.

Best Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two.

Best Sound: Dune: Part Two.

Best Documentary Feature: No Other Land.

Best Animated Feature: The Wild Robot.

Best International Feature: I’m Still Here. 

Best Animated Short: Yuck! 

Best Live-Action Short: A Lien.

Best Documentary Short: Incident.